Strategies to Avoid Climate Change

4) Different viewpoints- Hanson, World Bank, IPCC, Lovelock

According to Hansen, dangerous climate change can happen when carbon dioxide concentration is at most 350 ppm. He points that the indication that climate tipping point has been reached include melting of ice sheets, rise in the sea level, ocean acidification as well as disappearing alpine glaziers and reducing water supply. Hansen believes that the tipping point can be reversed by undertaking a number of measure including stopping oil and gas exploration, total ban of use of coal by 2030 and an intensive reforestation and practicing biochar agriculture.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model foresees gradual changes in the climate in future. IPCC concluded that if global warming increases by 2^oC or more, the biodiversity and ecosystem are likely to suffer irreparable losses. As a result, IPCC requires that global warming should be limited to 2^oC -2.4^oC relative to the temperature before the industrial age. This will be caused by about 445 ppm and 490 ppm of concentration carbon dioxide. According to IPCC, to avoid situation of dangerous climate change, developed countries must reduce their carbon dioxide emissions by about 25 percent and 40 percent before the end of 2020. IPCC believes that the planet earth can be saved if appropriate measures are implemented to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations to manageable levels between 445 ppm and 490 ppm.

Gessert (2010) revealed that Lovelock generated Gaia hypothesis, which proposes that Earth’s biosphere functions like a living organism under ecological relationships and feedback loops. According to Gaia hypothesis, the Gaia’s feedback loop has worked in favour of mankind from the end of ice age to the current time. However, the climatic stability that favoured mankind since the end of ice age is ending as huge amounts of carbon dioxide is spewed to the atmosphere by activities of mankind. Lovelock perceives that an opportunity for sustainable development has lapsed and is not sure whether ant single species will survive in future. This is because he argues that if melting polar ice melts and allow for exploration of vast reservoir of natural gas and oil under Arctic Ocean, Earth’s temperatures will automatically rise beyond IPCC predictions, so high that no species will survive except for few thermophiles. This is because temperatures may be pushed beyond the boiling point of water. As a result, and the planet will become too hot and remain so until, after a billion years when it will be consumed by the sun. Though his prediction is hopeless, he believes that man has a role to play to save self and others as they prepare for the next role. Consequently, humans need to develop earth-based religion rooted in science. The science-based religion should be able to situate mankind within a larger picture of the biosphere and elevate the earth beyond personal interests.

5) Dangerous Climate Change Means that Tipping Points May Arise

According to Little (2010), tipping point refers to a specific point (threshold), where a slight change in human activity may cause a sudden and rapid climate shift to a new state. It is a point farthest away from climatic equilibrium and any slight change in the climate could result to non-reversible consequences. Therefore, tipping point is a dangerous climatic position that can easily be pushed to a new state that is normally extremely disastrous. A climate system is pushed to a tipping point by human activities. Eccleston (2008) suggests that in ten years, the loss of Arctic sea ice and the greening of the Sahara will occur, as well as the disturbance of the West African monsoon. In three hundred years, the melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets will take place, although it will take 100 years for the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to fail and the El Nino Southern Oscillation to rise. Finally, in fifty years, the death of the Amazon and Boreal forests will occur. Melting and any other change in the climatic or environmental phenomenon is a sign of a tipping point and should serve as a warning that something terrible is about to happen if the climate is stressed beyond the current level. Tipping points help to distinguish global warming problem from other problems (Spratt and Sutton 2008).

6) Implications of Dangerous Climate Change

Dangerous climate Change claim thousands of lives each year in developed countries and claims millions more people in developing countries. Developed countries experienced heatwaves which claimed over 65,000 lives in Europe alone as temperatures rose to over 104 F (40⁰C). Heatwaves are silent killers claiming lives of the elderly, chronically ill and very youngest members of the society. It also destroys crops and leaves millions of hectares of land burned. It was estimated that Russia losses resulting from Heat Wave was over $15 billion (Guardian, 2011). According to Watts (2009), scientists have linked earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, avalanches, and tsunamis to global warming. This is because carbon dioxide levels are increasing from vehicles, power stations, and factories alters Earth’s geology. Scientists further found out that ice cap disappearance alters the pressures acting on the Earth’s crust and triggers volcanic eruptions. The Intergovernmental Commission on Climate Change, according to Polya (2007), cautions that if harmful climate change is not discussed, temperatures are likely to rise by 4^oC and sea level is likely to rise by 0.6 metres before 2013. When sea level rises, islands, and coastal areas risk being submerged. This may cause extensive damage to agriculture and crops will fail. High magnitude droughts, hurricanes, and floods will endanger thousands of populations. According to lovelock, if emission of carbon dioxide reaches 500ppm the Greenland ice would be eroded and ocean phytoplankton system will disappear. If ocean phytoplankton system disappears, global temperature balance will not be achieved and global warming will be fiercer. Climate change researchers have found that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is actually 380 parts per million (ppm) and rises by 3.3 percent per year. In addition, Williams (2010) notes that 50,000 endangered species have been identified by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). 17,000 species are facing immediate extinction, out of the 50,000 species listed. By the end of the 21st century, the IUCN estimates 50 percent of amphibians, 70 percent of botanical life, 37 percent of freshwater fish, 28 percent of reptiles, 21 percent of mammals, and 12 percent of all birds to be extinct. Such global warming effects include acidification of the seas that would destroy coral reefs. According to Hansen (2009), dangerous climate change will cause Arctic sea ice to melt. At the same time, melting ice sheet and glaciers will release frozen methane as tundra also melts.

7) Reversion Strategies

7.1) Hansen: Hansen thinks there should be zero coal plants by 2020. (He wants to raise the price of carbon emissions and make technology obsolete.)

Hansen suggested a number of reverse strategies to control dangerous climate change. First, Hansen suggested that use of unconventional fossils and coal must be phased out by 2020. However, use of unconventional fossils fuels may be allowed where it is possible to capture and sequester CO₂. In addition, construction of old technology coal-fired power plant must also be stopped. Secondly, he suggested that concerted efforts must be put on reducing human-made hydrocarbons as well as black carbon, ozone and methane. Thirdly, forestry and farming practices should be improved to reduce atmospheric CO₂. Furthermore, biofuel-technology power plants with CO₂ sequestration should also be improved to reduce atmospheric CO_2. Finally, producers of carbon emissions must be highly taxed and energy efficiency standards set. There should also be removal of barriers to energy efficiency actions to spur innovation that will bring about more use of renewable energies. Innovations should also be developed to increase efficient use of oil and gas so that less mobile fuel can be used in the transition to another phase of industrial revolutions.

7.2) Government Regulations: Government Regulation Strategy/ Private Sector/ Government Subsidy

Various governments are promising to take steps to reverse the dangerous climate change. The steps include reducing greenhouse gases, increase use of renewable energy controlling imports of tropical timber, increased energy efficiency and setting high tax on emissions. Governments have entered into international agreements. The agreements include Kyoto Protocol and Copenhagen 2009 among others. Countries that ratified Kyoto Protocol accept to reduce levels of carbon dioxide emissions and participate in emissions trading. Through the international agreements, governments commit themselves to implement environmentally friendly activities in their area of jurisdictions. United States of America, India, Australia, Japan, South Korea and China agreed to the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development and Climate. The partnership makes the countries to invest in technologies that help to reduce global warming. Methane to market initiative is a new technology that is aimed at reducing methane emissions by capturing emitted methane and used for generation of clean energy.

World Bank Advance

Subsidies

Government can offer subsidies to entities or individuals who generate energy from renewable sources. It can also give tax subsidies to consumers who use renewable energy to meet their energy needs. Subsidies may be in the form of direct cash transfers, indirect support mechanism, rebates or preferential tax treatments. Subsidies help to lower the cost of production or the cost of paying for energy. Direct cash transfers could be paid in terms of grants. It can also refer to borrowing loans in furtherance of the renewable energy production or usage. Preferential tax treatments refer to exemption from specific tax or duty levied on conventional energy sources or uses such as fuel. Subsidies are provided for renewable technologies such as wind, wave and hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, fossils and nuclear power. This is to encourage many people or entities to adopt the use of renewable energy or energy-saving technologies and equipments. Prototype Carbon Fund through public-private partnership under Clean Development Mechanism stipulated in the Kyoto Protocol to help developing countries to minimize carbon emissions.

Carbon Emission Trading

Carbon emission trading or cap and trade refer to an environment-oriented policy meant to impose cost or quota on carbon emissions. Carbon emission trading is based on cap and trade or baseline and credit. Government of a given country set a price for carbon dioxide emissions, which will be paid by entities of companies that emit carbon dioxide. This will impact negatively on companies and as a result will discourage process or activities that produce high levels of carbon dioxide. In a cap, government set up limits beyond which entities are not allowed to cross. Therefore, each company will be told the amount of carbon dioxide it has to produce and beyond that will attract some serious sanctions. On the other hand, some governments may grant cash subsidies or rebates to companies that operate below their threshold, which is equivalent to the amount of carbon dioxide that was not produced. For example, European Union Emission Trading scheme commenced operations on January, 1 2005 and all the twenty five European member states participate.

Private Sector

Twenty three multinational corporations came together at the G8 Climate change discussion. Among them are British Airways, Toyota Motors, Ford and British Petroleum. There are different ways in which private entities can help reverse climate change menace.  According to Weidman (2010), ICT sector can help reverse or minimize the climatic change. This can be done by private entities through sponsoring of climate change meetings and symposiums, financing innovative technologies that use renewable energies and using their technologies as a platform to influence members of the public to adopt environmentally friendly techniques in their operations. For example, mobile communication providers can use their short messaging service platform to urge the subscribers adopt environment friendly technologies to reduce carbon emission to the environment. There are about five billion mobile subscribers in the world and it is estimated that the number will increase to fifty billion subscribers in 2020. It is estimated that through smart application of ICT, at least 15 percent of world carbon dioxide emission could be offsets by 2020.

Taxation

Emission tax is levied on individuals owning and operating greenhouses on the basis of each tonne of greenhouse gas emitted into the atmosphere. Emission taxes are cost-effective and environmentally effective.

7.3) Technology: Carbon Capture Strategies (When will they get in? How much will it cost? Which technology is at which point now

Stangeland (2007) stated carbon capture storage strategy has been invented and implemented by some countries. This aims to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide that is emitted into the atmosphere. Under the Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage, carbon dioxide is captured, stored temporarily, transported and stored in safe and isolated locations away from the atmosphere. Places appropriate for storing carbon dioxide include saline aquifers as well as depleted oil and gas fields. Presently, they are stored in the North Sea where one million tones of carbon dioxide have been stored annually since 1996 in an underground geological formation called the Utsiru. Infrastructure for capturing carbon dioxide is set up in large power plants fired by fossil fuel, large petrochemical as well as aluminum and steel plants. Transportation of capture carbon dioxide is done via pipelines or shipped. The first carbon capture and storage project is Sleipner. It began operation in 1996 and stores at least one million tons of carbon dioxide each year. The Weyburn-Midale Carbon Dioxide Plant is the main carbon capture and storage project situated in Saskatchewan, Canada. Another site also includes In-Salah located in Algeria. Canada has invested over $ 3.4 billion in the development of carbon capture and storage technology.